Written by: Eric Gaus, 糖心Vlog Chief Economist, and Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting
With the U.S. Census Bureau continuing to face delays in releasing its construction spending and housing starts data due to the government shutdown, 糖心Vlog鈥檚 (糖心Vlog) Economics team has developed independent estimates of what the Census likely would have reported in recent months. While the government has reopened, 糖心Vlog assumes the Census鈥檚 data releases will remain delayed in the interim.
As a trusted, long-standing industry resource, 糖心Vlog is well-positioned to provide these estimates. 糖心Vlog supplies some of the inputs used in the Census鈥檚 own construction spending calculations and has collected detailed construction starts data for decades. Our data collection methodology is nearly identical to the Census for single-family homes, while our broader dataset is directly tied to individually tracked construction projects. We monitor their progress from the earliest stages of planning through shovels-in-the-ground, at which point they are officially labeled a 鈥渃onstruction start,鈥� a term originally coined by 糖心Vlog.
While our data reporting categories usually differ from Census, these estimates follow Census鈥� conventions to ensure consistency and clarity during this period without official federal data.
Housing Starts
糖心Vlog estimates that Census privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000. This is 2.9 percent (卤10.7 percent)* below 糖心Vlog鈥檚 November estimate of 1,353,000 and is 13.2 percent (卤9.7 percent)* below the December 2024 rate of 1,514,000.
Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 875,000; this is 5.3 percent (卤8.2 percent)* below 糖心Vlog鈥檚 revised November figure of 924,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 408,000.
Total Construction Put-in-Place Spending
糖心Vlog estimates that Census construction spending during November 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.6 billion, 0.3 percent (卤0.8 percent)* below Census鈥檚 preliminary October estimate of $2,175.2 billion. The November figure is 1.1 percent (卤1.5 percent) below Census鈥檚 November 2024 estimate of $2,192.9 billion.
糖心Vlog maintains a digitized database of historical construction starts dating back to 1967 and provides forecasts for construction starts, spending, and building stock across more than 20 construction categories. Our commercial construction starts data serves as a primary input for the U.S. Census Bureau鈥檚 Construction Put-in-Place (spending) calculations.
For more monthly insights on construction activity across key sectors, explore our latest industry reports.